Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 99% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 99% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 99% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 99% |
| Oregon State O/U 23.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 98% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 98% |
| Spread -1.5 | 97% |
| Spread -2.5 | 97% |
| O/U 35.5 | 97% |
| Spread -3.5 | 96% |
| Spread -4.5 | 96% |
| Spread -5.5 | 96% |
| Spread -6.5 | 96% |
| Spread -7.5 | 96% |
| Spread -9.5 | 96% |
| Spread -11.5 | 96% |
| O/U 41.5 | 95% |
| Spread -10.5 | 94% |
| Spread -16.5 | 94% |
| O/U 37.5 | 94% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 94% |
| Spread -13.5 | 93% |
| Spread -14.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 92% |
| Spread -17.5 | 91% |
| O/U 43.5 | 91% |
| O/U 45.5 | 91% |
| O/U 47.5 | 91% |
| Spread -20.5 | 90% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 88% |
| Spread -21.5 | 87% |
| O/U 49.5 | 86% |
| O/U 51.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 86% |
| Spread -15.5 | 85% |
| O/U 39.5 | 83% |
| Spread -24.5 | 82% |
| O/U 53.5 | 79% |
| Spread -19.5 | 75% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 74% |
| Spread -27.5 | 73% |
| Spread -30.5 | 73% |
| O/U 55.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Spread -28.5 | 69% |
| Spread -31.5 | 69% |
| O/U 57.5 | 63% |
| O/U 59.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 60% |
| O/U 61.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -34.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Oregon State O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 32.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State O/U 35.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 63.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| O/U 65.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| O/U 67.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| O/U 69.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 36% |
| O/U 73.5 | 31% |
| O/U 75.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| O/U 71.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 2% |
| Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State | 1% |
| Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: san diego state vs. oregon state. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Oregon State, scheduled for October 10 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego St…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $480K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: San Diego State vs. Oregon State auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
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