Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 73% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots | 59% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Egil Selvik: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Egil Selvik: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Egil Selvik: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 21% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Amad Diallo: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 17% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elye Wahi: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Jens Hauge: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Amad Diallo: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Oumar Diakité: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Egil Selvik: 5+ saves | 7% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Elye Wahi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Evann Guessand: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Oumar Diakité: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jens Hauge: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Evann Guessand: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Oumar Diakité: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Amad Diallo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elye Wahi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Evann Guessand: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oumar Diakité: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jens Hauge: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Amad Diallo: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Amad Diallo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Pépé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 81% Chance für prognose: côte d'ivoire vs. norway - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Player Props" auf Prediction Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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