Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 73% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Cucurella: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: spain vs. belgium - player props 95%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Belgium, scheduled for July 10 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Spain vs. Belgium - Player Props" auf Prediction Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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