Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 197.5 | 92% |
| O/U 199.5 | 90% |
| O/U 201.5 | 88% |
| O/U 203.5 | 86% |
| O/U 205.5 | 82% |
| O/U 207.5 | 80% |
| O/U 209.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 90.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 96.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 92.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 94.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 211.5 | 72% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 213.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 215.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| O/U 217.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 59% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 219.5 | 55% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 54% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 221.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Suns O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 100.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 102.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 104.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 92.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 94.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 96.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 98.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| O/U 223.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 39.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 224.5 | 44% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| O/U 225.5 | 41% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 227.5 | 37% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 229.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5 | 33% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 33% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 31% |
| O/U 231.5 | 30% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 29% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 29% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Suns O/U 122.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| O/U 233.5 | 26% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 25% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 24% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 24% |
| O/U 235.5 | 23% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 237.5 | 20% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 18% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| Suns O/U 126.5 | 17% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| Spread -23.5 | 15% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -25.5 | 12% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -27.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -29.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 6% |
| O/U 251.5 | 6% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 3% |
| Spread -18.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Warriors vs. Suns. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 24% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-25T02:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $125K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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