Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 224.5 | 74% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| O/U 240.5 | 43% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Spread -12.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 79% Chance für prognose: grizzlies vs. warriors. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "War…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $487K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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