Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 21.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| O/U 25.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 86% |
| O/U 26.5 | 86% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| Jaguars O/U 18.5 | 83% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 29.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 78% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| O/U 32.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| Jaguars O/U 15.5 | 68% |
| Browns O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| Spread -4.5 | 65% |
| O/U 35.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Spread -5.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Browns O/U 12.5 | 64% |
| Jaguars O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 62% |
| Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| 2H Moneyline | 59% |
| O/U 37.5 | 58% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 58% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| Browns O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Browns Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Browns 1H O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Spread -8.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Browns 2H O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Browns 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Browns 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Browns Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 49% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Browns O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Browns 1H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| Jaguars O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Browns O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| Browns 1H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 34% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Browns O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Browns O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Browns O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| Browns O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| Browns O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars | 22% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Browns O/U 27.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| O/U 50.5 | 20% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Browns O/U 22.5 | 19% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| Browns 1H O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| O/U 51.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Browns O/U 26.5 | 17% |
| Browns 1H O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| Browns 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 15% |
| Browns 1H O/U 16.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 53.5 | 13% |
| O/U 55.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 13% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| O/U 57.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 1-6 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 60.5 | 6% |
| Browns O/U 28.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 25+ | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 7-12 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 13-18 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 19-24 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 94% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Browns vs. Jaguars. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Browns wins, the market will resolve to "Browns". If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $96K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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