Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 223.5 | 74% |
| 1H Moneyline | 71% |
| O/U 226.5 | 69% |
| Race to 10 | 69% |
| Race to 30 | 69% |
| Race to 20 | 66% |
| O/U 229.5 | 62% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 234.5 | 51% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 235.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| O/U 236.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 237.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 239.5 | 42% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 240.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 242.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 245.5 | 31% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 34.5 | 31% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 248.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 251.5 | 21% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.5 | 21% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Spread -12.5 | 20% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Spread -12.5 | 15% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 15% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 14% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Magic" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 74% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game i…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $105K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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