Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 78% |
| O/U 212.5 | 73% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 71% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 69% |
| O/U 215.5 | 67% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| O/U 218.5 | 60% |
| O/U 220.5 | 56% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 221.5 | 54% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 222.5 | 52% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 223.5 | 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 224.5 | 47% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| O/U 225.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 228.5 | 38% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 38% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 35% |
| O/U 231.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 33% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| O/U 234.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 22% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 13% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 78% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $80K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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