Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 27.5 | 96% |
| O/U 29.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 94% |
| Rams O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Rams O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Rams O/U 19.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| Rams O/U 20.5 | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 91% |
| O/U 36.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| Rams O/U 23.5 | 87% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| Spread -1.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 85% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 84% |
| Spread -2.5 | 83% |
| O/U 40.5 | 82% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 81% |
| O/U 41.5 | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 78% |
| Spread -3.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Rams O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| Rams O/U 26.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 74% |
| Spread -4.5 | 74% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| Spread -5.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 71% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 45.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 69% |
| Rams O/U 27.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Rams O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 46.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Rams 1H O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Spread -7.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| O/U 47.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Rams 1H O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Rams 1H O/U 12.5 | 61% |
| Spread -8.5 | 60% |
| O/U 48.5 | 60% |
| Spread -9.5 | 59% |
| Rams 1H O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 58% |
| O/U 49.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| Rams O/U 30.5 | 56% |
| Spread -10.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 50.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Rams 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Rams 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Rams Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. Rams: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rams Total Touchdowns: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Rams 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 47% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| O/U 52.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| O/U 53.5 | 44% |
| Spread -17.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| Rams 1H O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| Safety? | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 43% |
| Spread -14.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Rams by 1-6 | 42% |
| Spread -15.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| O/U 54.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| Rams O/U 34.5 | 40% |
| Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 55.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 56.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Spread -17.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 34% |
| Rams 1H O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| Spread -19.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Rams 1H O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Spread -21.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 28% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| Spread -19.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 26% |
| O/U 60.5 | 25% |
| 1H Moneyline | 25% |
| O/U 61.5 | 24% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 24% |
| Spread -21.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| O/U 63.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| O/U 65.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals vs. Rams | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 13% |
| Spread -1.5 | 13% |
| Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 96% Chance für prognose: cardinals vs. rams. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL football game between Cardinals and Rams, scheduled for October 18 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cardinals" if Cardinals win the game. This market …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $174K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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