Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 27.5 | 93% |
| Texans O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 29.5 | 91% |
| Bengals O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 88% |
| O/U 31.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 33.5 | 83% |
| O/U 34.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 35.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| Texans 1H O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Bengals O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| O/U 39.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 68% |
| O/U 40.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| Texans O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| O/U 42.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| O/U 43.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Bengals O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| O/U 44.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Texans O/U 23.5 | 52% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 17.5 | 52% |
| Texans 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Texans O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Texans 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 14-20 | 51% |
| Bengals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bengals vs. Texans: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 25+ | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-13 | 49% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 49% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Bengals O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Texans O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 21+ | 48% |
| O/U 46.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 19-24 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 1-6 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 46% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -19.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Moneyline | 44% |
| O/U 47.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 43% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 43% |
| Bengals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Bengals vs. Texans | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Bengals O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| Texans 1H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 42% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Texans O/U 26.5 | 41% |
| O/U 48.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 49.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 37% |
| O/U 50.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| O/U 51.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Texans O/U 27.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 52.5 | 31% |
| Bengals O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| O/U 53.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 54.5 | 25% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 25% |
| Texans 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Bengals O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Texans O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| O/U 55.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 21% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 57.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| O/U 58.5 | 17% |
| Bengals O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Texans 1H O/U 17.5 | 14% |
| Texans 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| O/U 61.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Texans 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 67.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Safety? | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Bengals vs. Texans. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 42% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.5M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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