Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 90% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 90% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 89% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 89% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 87% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 85% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 84% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 82% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 81% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 80% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 80% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 79% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 79% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 79% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 78% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 77% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 77% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 74% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 70% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 69% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 68% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 68% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 67% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 65% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 63% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 62% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 61% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 61% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 59% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 59% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 57% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 57% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 56% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 52% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| George Pickens: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| George Pickens: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| George Pickens: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| George Pickens: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 49% |
| Javonte Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 48% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 47% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 42% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 42% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 41% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 41% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 41% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 38% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 37% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Anytime Touchdown | 37% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 36% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 32% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 32% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 31% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 31% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 30% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 28% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 27% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 27% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 25% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 119.5 | 25% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 24% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 23% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 22% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 22% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 21% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 19% |
| Javonte Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 19% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 18% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 18% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 17% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 17% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 16% |
| Dak Prescott: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 14% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 14% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 14% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| CeeDee Lamb: 2+ Touchdowns | 14% |
| Tyler Goodson: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 14% |
| Jake Ferguson: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 13% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 12% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 11% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 11% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 6% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Anytime Touchdown | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Cowboys vs. Packers - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 90% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Cowboys vs. Packers - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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