Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Texans O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| Colts O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| Colts 1H O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| O/U 40.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 55% |
| Texans O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Texans vs. Colts | 54% |
| Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| O/U 42.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Texans O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Colts O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Colts O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Colts O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Colts O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Colts by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Colts by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Colts by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Colts by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Colts Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texans vs. Colts: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Colts Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Colts O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Colts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Colts O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Colts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Colts O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Colts O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Texans 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texans 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texans 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Colts 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Colts 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Colts 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Colts 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Colts 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Colts 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colts 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colts 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Texans O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| O/U 45.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| O/U 47.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 54.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Texans vs. Colts — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 95%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans". If Colts wins, the market will resolve to "Colts". If the game is postponed, thi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $119K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Texans vs. Colts auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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