Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 89% |
| O/U 29.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| Seahawks vs. Commanders | 76% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| 1H Moneyline | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 66% |
| Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 64% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 37.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks vs. Commanders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| O/U 42.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| O/U 48.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| O/U 51.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Spread -19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| O/U 55.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| O/U 58.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| O/U 67.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Seahawks vs. Commanders. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Seahawks wins, the market will resolve to "Seahawks". If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $258K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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